Facing the 'good problem to have' - is there room for everybody?

Coach Dave Rice - knows exactly what he's doing

Before the article - shout-out to UNLV's Joel Anthony and the Miami Heat for winning the NBA Championship. That's two Runnin' Rebels winning championships in the last two years (Shawn Marion 2011 with the Mavericks).

Any college coach will tell you, having too much talent is a good problem to have to deal with. The opposite is obviously trying to make up for a lack of talent and figuring out ways to beat your opponent when likely outmatched. The Runnin' Rebels are now as stacked as they were at anytime since their 89-90' and 90-91' teams took college basketball by storm. Let's look at what others are pointing to as a perceived problem.

There are forty minutes in a college basketball game, and with no more than five players on the court for a team at any given time, that means 200 minutes are up for grabs, not including the potential for overtime. What keeps a player on the floor is their ability to make plays, hustle, be consistent, make others better, not turnover the ball and not pick up fouls.

Anyone who knows the game of basketball knows it takes some time for a player to get a feel of the tempo of the game, to feel the offense and read the opponent to work within the defense. Game tape and bench time are very important, but cannot make up for actually planting your sneakers on the court and breaking a sweat. There have been players who have had more minutes than they thought possible, perhaps recently graduated Oscar Bellfield would fit into that category. And there were others who believed they were entitled to more minutes, specifically non-garbage time minutes - perhaps recently transferred Karam Mashour would fit into that category (he is transferring to Morehead St.). There have been coaching decisions that many of us fans would tend to disagree with, specifically the carousel of substitutions at the center spot constantly rotating between Massamba, Lopez, and Thomas - more so with Kruger, but somewhat with Rice.  All in the persuit from a coaching standpoint of figuring out what five guys can get UNLV a W instead of a L. In the end, if the Ls outnumber the Ws, change will come swiftly and paid employees are the ones who may not see the court.

Let's run through scenarios under the believe that what Coach Rice said, he'd like to run 9-10 deep will in fact play out.

Here is how I see this years roster grouping out:

Players who can play point guard:
Anthony Marshall
Katin Reinhardt
Justin Hawkins
Daquan Cook

Players who can play shooting guard:
Bryce Dejean-Jones
All of the previously named point guards

Players who can play small forward:
Anthony Bennett
Mike Moser
Savon Goodman
Roscoe Smith

Players who can play power forward:
Anthony Bennett
Mike Moser
Khem Birch
Carlos Lopez
Quintrell Thomas
Demetris Morant
Savon Goodman

Players who can play center:
Carlos Lopez
Quintrell Thomas
Khem Birch
Anthony Bennett
Demetris Morant

Players who are going to potentially redshirt 2012-13 (based on speculation in the media)
Daquan Cook
Roscoe Smith (may be forced by NCAA)
Khem Birch (fall semester)
Savon Goodman
Demetris Morant

There have been many off-season additions, but the losses that most impact the Runnin' Rebels from a minutes and impact standpoint are clearly Chace Stanback, Oscar Bellfield, and Brice Massamba.

Chace Stanback averaged 27.9 minutes a game at the forward position. Who will fill his shoes? Much has been made of the deepest front-court in all of college basketball, and In the early season, we'll have #6/7th ranked Anthony Bennett to fill his shoes and bring both offense and grit to the position. Clearly, having Anthony Bennett run along side Mike Moser in the 3 and 4 positions is a dream lineup, so why not make it happen? Fortunately we can have any two of our deepest front court on the court at any time. Part of the reason why Coach Rice is thinking of running 9-10 deep is because its going to take a hell of a lot of energy to play his up-tempo offense the way he actually wants to execute it. Along with the offense, the constantly switching defense is likely to be back, and hopefully while we exhaust the opposing teams we keep fresh legs on the court. So, in likelihood Roscoe Smith will not be granted a waiver because the NCAA is not particualry thrilled with all the transfer activity. Let's pretend that Demetris Morant redshirts (could easily be Goodman instead of Morant redshirting), and Quintrell Thomas and Carlos Lopez stick with the 5 spot. Then you really only have Anthony Bennett, Mike Moser, Savon Goodman, and Khem Birch (in the fall). Not as deep as previously presumed. A total of 80 minutes between the small forward and power forward must be split between them. According to how I'm looking at it - plenty of room to be had and make up for Chace Stanback's minutes and production.

Oscar Bellfield averaged 32 minutes a game at the point guard position - that's a hell of a lot of minutes to dish out. All of the candidates outlined above all have the potential to be scoring point guards, and will likely not have to create their own shot or face a double team based upon the amount of respect opponents' defenders will have to pay the rest of the roster. Making up for the consistency of Bellfield will be difficult - remember, Coach Rice really wanted to start Anthony Marshall at PG before the seasons started, and did for a few games - but then changed back to Bellfield at point. I believe Marshall has the ability, but Coach realized that he needed the experience that Bellfield brought to the position.  All four candidates are capable of playing point - but the starter will be the one with the most consistency. The starter will occupy 20-27 minutes a game. Because there are so many minutes to fill, redshirting Daquan Cook should not be an option, provided he is ready to run Coach Rice's system. Had Reggie Smith not transferred, hands down I'd say he was going to redshirt - but this will be a huge test for him. A friend of mine keeps telling me Daquan Cook will be the biggest surprise this year, can't wait to see if he's right. Plenty of room to fill Oscar Bellfield's shoes, and plenty of room to fill the shooting guard position as well. Over-recruited? Nope.

Brice Massamba averaged 20.2 minutes a game at the center position. This is a very interesting quandary because of  the fall ineligibility of Khem Birch. Clearly, he would be in the mix at either the 4 or 5 position if available all year - but what to do about fall? Without Khem, you are left with Carlos Lopez and Quintrell Thomas guarding the center position. Pretty good, but the question is whether to have Demetris Morant use what could otherwise be an extremely productive redshirt year and have tons of freedom in the 2013-14 season. I can't even begin to think about how difficult this decision will be, but likely the outcome will be solely based upon how Morant plays in practice and the exhibition games in Canada, and whether he is comfortable with potentially losing minutes when Birch is introduced into the lineup in late December. I still have a lingering suspicion that the redshirt is probable, but if that's the case I am praying Lopez and Thomas can hold down the center position while awaiting Birch. Over recruited - No. Massamba really owned the center position last year, it will be fun to see who can carry his torch.

So, with as much hype about old roster vs. new, and whether the Runnin' Rebels are too stacked with talent that we all should be concerned - I think Coach Rice & staff knew exactly who they needed, didn't over recruit onto any one position, and have everything perfectly laid out going forward. Perhaps the mentality could be likened to someone going hunting, and always bringing too little ammo. Then, on a subsequent trip the guy finally brings an adequate amount of ammo and thinks - man, is this too much? Naaa... just enough to finally hit all of your targets. My prediction - MWC Champions and at least Elite Eight.

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