ESPN scouts player talent: How are the Lon Kruger and Dave Rice recruiting efforts stacking up?

By Jason Taylor

RebelReign Contributor

(reblegrad95)

The Runnin’ Rebels were rich in talent and victories from the 1970’s through the early 1990’s.  Under Coach Jerry Tarkanian, they produced four final four visits, and a national championship team that is held in regard as one of the best teams ever assembled.  The Rebels were such an impact to college basketball that HBO Sports recently produced a documentary recounting the UNLV era (Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV).

Things changed, however.  Robert Maxson, UNLV’s residing President at the time, set his crosshairs on Tarkanian.  The two tangled, and eventually, Maxson was successful in pushing the legendary coach out.

Maxson’s effort to “clean the program up” immediately produced a partially secret contract that landed Rollie Massimino as Tark’s replacement.  Fans were far less than tearful when the pair hit the exit doors a few years later.

Subsequent years produced glimpses of hope.  UNLV made it back into the NCAA tournament in 97’ under Coach Bill Bayno, and the program landed a few NBA level recruits over the years, but the Saturday nights at T&M just weren’t what they used to be. 

Much of the solution ended up being simple enough.  They hired Lon Kruger.  He began recruiting, and more importantly, coaching, and the team now looks back at a span where it has made it into the NCAA tournament 4 of the past 5 years. 

  

Much of the talent assembled has come by way of transfers, but it is amassing, regardless.  UNLV certainly has a good recruiting trajectory at the moment, but where do the Rebels actually stand now, and where are they headed with the new Rice recruits?

Investigating this question, individual player data have been extracted from ESPN.com, and applied to teams.  ESPN has a list of Top 100 recruits, and it has a grading scale for each player that falls on the national recruiting radar.  The scale criteria can be found here, but basically, scores over 92 mean a player will likely make an impact at high major schools, players scoring over 82 are predicted to at least play roles at mid major schools, and scores over 70 mean they should likely play division 1 basketball. 

Derrick Williams, who came out early this year and was selected #2 in this year’s draft, fell 72^nd in the top 100, and had a Scout Grade of 92.  Kawhi Leonard of SDSU went 7^th in the draft, was 56^th in the top 100, and had a grade of 92 before entering college.   The scores are not always tremendous predictors… Jimmer Fredette, the national player of the year, did not make the top 100, and was graded at a 79, meaning it might be tough for him to get playing time at a good school.  Nonetheless, it is apparent after reviewing teams, that using ESPN’s recruiting information is highly correlative to the success of college teams.

The main question here is, “Does UNLV ‘Got Talent’”?

The recruiting info has been tracked down for every player on 6 selected teams, including UNLV, for the 2011-12 season. The other teams are San Diego State, New Mexico, USC, UCLA, and North Carolina.  These teams have both a range in talent, and have relative importance to UNLV.  UNLV plays USC this year, and has a good chance of meeting UNC if the Rebels beat USC in an early season tournament.  UCLA is seeking some of the same recruiting prospects on UNLV’s list, including Shabazz Muhammad, and UNLV has two important UCLA transfers, Chace Stanback and Mike Moser. 

In order to uniformly assess each team from a recruiting standpoint, the top 8 recruits on each team, according to their Scout Grade, are assembled.  The information tells if and how a player places in ESPN “Top 100”, and what their Scouting Grade was before they went in to college.  The “AVG” column shows what the average Scouting Grade is for the top 8 players.  This gives a good assessment of the strength of the players that will likely see significant minutes. 

USC		TOP 100	SCOUT GR	AVG
MAURICE JONES - G	FR	89	93
ARI STEWART - F	JR	52	93
BYRON WESLEY - G	FR	-	91
GARRETT JACKSON - F	FR	-	90
ALEXIS MOORE - G	FR	-	88
CURTIS WASHINGTON - F	FR	-	87
EVAN SMITH	SO	-	78
DEWAYNE DEDMON	SO	-	70	86.3

Notes:  USC was hit with sanctions, but still has 2 Top 100 players.  Brice Jones would have been another Top 100 for USC, but he just transferred to Rice and UNLV.  He’ll sit this year out under transfer rules.  USC has a very young team.

SDSU		ESPN	SCOUT GR	AVG
GARRET GREEN - C	SR	85	93
JAMAAL FRANKLIN - G	SO	-	90
LABRADFORD FRANKLIN - G	SO	-	90
XAVIER THAMES - G	SO	-	88
ALEC WILIAMS - F	JR	-	88
CHASE TAPLEY - G	JR	-	85
TIM SHELTON - F	SR	-	81
JAMES RAHON - G	JR	-	80	86.9

Notes:  SDSU lost several key players… Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, DJ Gay, and Malcom Thomas.  They are filling holes and landed two transfers of UNLV interest, J.J. O’Brien and Dwayne Polee Jr.  O’Brien chose SDSU over UNLV when Brice Jones committed, and Polee, while interested, never received a hard offer from Rice, even though he was originally recruited by UNLV under Kruger.

NEW MEXICO		ESPN	SCOUT GR	AVG
PHILIP MCDONALD - SG	JR	42	96
ALEX KIRK - C	FR	99	93
TONY SNELL-  SF	FR	-	92
DEMETRIUS WALKER	SO	74	92
KENDALL WILLIAMS  - PG	FR	-	91
DOMINIQUE DUNNING - G	FR	-	90
JAMAL FENTON - PG	SO	-	88
A.J. HARDEMAN - PF	JR	-	87	91.1

Notes:  The Lobos have 3 Top 100’s, and follow them up with a lot of “close behind” talent.  Look for them to have a very good year and challenge for the MWC title.

UCLA ESPN SCOUTS GR AVG JERIME ANDERSON - PG SR 49 96 JOSHUA SMITH - C SO 20 96 LARRY DREW II - G SR 29 96 TYLER LAMB - SG SO 28 95 NORMAN POWELL - G FR 52 95 TRAVIS WEAR - F SO 37 94 DAVID WEAR - F SO 36 94 BRENDAN LANE - F JR 69 92 94.75

Notes:  Wow!  Every single one of their top 8 are Top 100 players!  No wonder Chase and Mike felt a bit crowed.  UCLA didn’t have a great year in 2010.  If they don’t do better this year…

UNC		ESPN	SCOUT GR	AVG
JOHN HENSON - F	JR	6	98
HARRISON BARNES - F	SO	1	98
JAMES MCADOO - F	FR	6	98
P.J. HARISTON - G	FR	13	97
REGGIE BULLOCK - G	SO	18	96
TYLER ZELLER - F	SR	7	96
DEXTER STRICKLAND G	JR	27	95
LESLIE MCDONALD - G	JR	32	95	96.6

Notes:  Give witness to a perennial powerhouse.  The ninth UNC player is #22 on the Top 100.  The average grade for this group classifies each of them as likely early-outs, headed for the NBA.  Roscoe Allen, the 55^th top recruit and with a Score of 94, is high on UNLV’s list for 2012, and has narrowed his list to UNC, Stanford, and UNLV.  He’ll feel very crowded at UNC, and may not see any playing time right away there.  He would be the lowest rated of all the Top 100 recruits.  

Now, before reading below, take a guess where UNLV falls. 

Wait for it…

UNLV		ESPN	SCOUT GR	AVG
CHACE STANBACK	Sr	52	96
QUINTRELL THOMAS	Jr	56	95
MIKE MOSER	So	55	92
ANTHONY MARSHALL	Jr	85	91
REGGIE SMITH	So	-	90
CARLOS LOPEZ	So	-	89
KENDALL WALLACE	Sr	-	81
JUSTIN HAWKINS	Jr	-	80	89.3

Notes:  Notice Bellfield didn’t even make the list.  He scored a 66, which means he isn’t even assessed to play division 1 basketball.  It shows ESPN doesn’t know everything, as Bellfield played more minutes than any other Rebel last year, and continues to develop.  Brice Jones is not on the list because he has to wait until next year to play.  Massamba and Mashour didn’t have scores, due to a lack of review by ESPN.

UNLV has 4 Top 100’s, which is more than New Mexico, but the Lobos have a stronger supporting cast according to ESPN, giving them a higher average Scouting Grade.

UNC has staggering amounts of talent.  Looking a bit deeper, of the Top 100’s on the team, the worst was 32^nd in the nation…  Taking the average, it is like saying UNC has been able to land 9 players, each one being the 14^th best recruit in the nation.  Amazing!

Rebel fans can be proud of recruiting efforts, but it is hard to make a case, based solely on recruited talent, that UNLV will return to the absolute top of the heap with immediacy.

Where are the Rebels headed?  Rice has done a great job so far.  We’ll lose Stanback, Wallace, Massamba, and Bellfield at the end of this year.  Two scholarships remain unfilled at this moment for 2012, and as it sits now, we gain 2.5 AVG points:

2012		TOP 100	SCOUT GR	AVG
QUINTRELL THOMAS	SR	56	95
KATIN REINHARDT	FR	60	94
BRICE JONES	SO	69	94
MIKE MOSER	JR	55	92
ANTHONY MARSHALL	SR	85	91
REGGIE SMITH	JR	-	90
CARLOS LOPEZ	JR	-	89
DEMETRIUS MORANT	FR	-	89	91.8
DEQUAN COOK	FR	-	87
JUSTIN HAWKINS	SR	-	80
KARAM MASHOUR	JR	NR	NR

If the Rebels are able to land Roscoe Allen (55, 94), the score would change to 92.4. 

Assuming no additional recruits at the minute, 2013 lands an average score of 91.4 after losing Marshall and Thomas, but adding Christian Wood (34,96).  Dantley Walker, Nevada’s all time leading scorer, has not been rated, so he doesn’t affect the average. 

An additional strong recruit suddenly puts us right up near UCLA’s score for this year.  That, however, assumes an incredible feat for Rice and Co. 

The bottom line is that the Rebels are definitely headed in the right direction as far as talent is assessed.  If a few more recruits fall the right way, the Rebels could legitimately see 7 Top 100 recruits running the floor within 2 years.  That would put the team in some pretty elite company. 

Keep your fingers crossed, and show up.  Fans matter!


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